Three Big-Name NFL Teams You Should Avoid Backing Despite Their Favorite Tags

If there is one truth the 2025 NFL season has hammered home, it’s this: there are no sacred cows, no untouchables, and absolutely no guarantees. Indeed, anyone betting on the gridiron this season should bear one golden rule in mind: expect the unexpected. 

Those who bet on NFL at Bovada will already know that it is tight at the top of the betting charts. The favorite to leave Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco next February as Super Bowl champions is changing on a weekly basis, with the Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, and the Baltimore Ravens all calling the frontrunner tag their own at one point or another. As we head into week ten, it’s the Kansas City Chiefs who have top billing, currently priced at +600, attracting the attention of a lot of people looking to place a bet on a high-flying team. 

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But even though Patrick Mahomes’ team has that familiar favorites tag hanging around their neck, they are by no means immune to a shock loss. Indeed, KC lost last time out, slumping to a disappointing 28-21 defeat on the road against Buffalo to snap their winning streak at three. 

So, what should punters do to avoid seeing their parlays nuked on any given Sunday by a team that was supposed to be a lock? Well, here are three they should be extra careful backing throughout the second half of the campaign, despite any respective favorites tag. 

Green Bay Packers

Statistically dazzling on their day, but gamblers beware: the 2025 Packers have become the league’s living, breathing definition of variance. Their peaks are Everest, their valleys abyssal. Early-season destruction of Detroit and dominant standouts against Pittsburgh and Washington sparked fevered Super Bowl chatter around Jordan Love and his maturing offense. For a moment, this was the NFL’s sexy, fearless new contender.

But for every statement win, there has been a sobering stumble into the ordinary. Cleveland’s defense choked the life out of Matt LaFleur’s attack, holding the Packers to ten points in a display that was as disjointed as it was uninspiring. The grandest indignity, though, arrived at Lambeau—a home loss to Carolina on week nine as a two-touchdown favorite, underscored by five red-zone trips that yielded a solitary touchdown and a ground game gouged for 163 hard yards.

Even victories have flattered to deceive. Needing a late Jacoby Brissett miscue to scrape past Arizona, or surviving a furious Dallas onslaught thanks to a fumbled overtime snap, repeatedly requires the sort of luck that always, eventually, runs dry. The Packers’ identity in 2025 is clear: thrilling, but fatally unpredictable. 

Kansas City Chiefs

For the better part of a decade, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have written the NFL’s rules of engagement. But time, attrition, and the league’s rising parity have finally caught up with Kansas City. Back in February’s Super Bowl LIX mauling at the hands of the Eagles, the warning signs were there for all to see. But the 2025 season has painted the clearest picture yet: these are still dangerous Chiefs, but mortals all the same.

Look at the evidence—at 5-4 and behind both Denver and the Chargers in the AFC West, the tide is plainly turning. Kansas City’s season started with an uncharacteristic stutter, losing out to both the Chargers and the Eagles to start 0-2 for the first time in the Mahomes era. Red-zone conversion, once an immutable strength, has cratered: a mystifying two touchdowns from eight trips at Jacksonville nearly defied belief, but not for those who’ve watched this offense drift through gears the past two years. 

The holes aren’t confined to conversion either. The O-line, vaunted just twelve months ago, surrendered 15 QB hits and 3 sacks in a loss to Buffalo, while special teams errors have cost the Chiefs crucial field position. Even Mahomes, ever the escape artist, has found his magic diminished by a receiving corps that is increasingly difficult to locate, forcing more and more aggressive playcalling, which hasn’t always worked out. 

The experts have flagged these shifts, highlighting a team long accustomed to winning “on the margins” now bleeding those same margins away. Kansas City always has a puncher’s chance, and that will remain all the way up until Super Bowl LX in Silicon Valley. But the aura of invincibility is gone—and so is any illusion of betting comfort.

Indianapolis Colts

Every year produces a Cinderella, but be careful buying into the Colts’ glass slipper. Shane Steichen’s men tore up projections with a thunderous 7-1 start, fueled by breakout production from the reborn Daniel Jones and battering-ram running back Jonathan Taylor. For a fleeting window, Indianapolis was the NFL’s feel-good story, leading the league in both points scored (32.2 per game) and average margin (+12.1).

But the deeper data and recent events sound alarms. Against Pittsburgh, the offensive clock struck midnight—Indiana Jones melted down with three picks, Taylor fumbled with the game on the line, and Indy finished with a grotesque six turnovers. Even in narrow wins, the cracks show: over the last three outings, the defense allowed 24 points per game and relied on Taylor turning every third carry into a highlight just to survive. The addition of Sauce Gardner cannot paper over a secondary that has tightened against weak opposition, but leaked badly the moment it faced elite passers.

The gauntlet ahead is daunting—Kansas City’s revival, Seattle’s unpredictable blitzes, San Francisco’s military-grade schemes. Ask yourself: can a turnover-prone offense, reliant on one back and a QB who was a laughing stock heading into the 2025 season, weather that storm? Or will the regression lurking behind their sterling record finally come to collect? 

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